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Early voting has ALREADY surpassed 2016 with nine days to go


With nine days before Election Day, more people already have cast ballots in this year’s presidential election than voted early or absentee in the 2016 race as the start of in-person early voting in big states led to a surge in turnout in recent days.

The opening of early voting locations in Florida, Texas and elsewhere has piled millions of new votes on top of the mail ballots arriving at election offices as voters try to avoid crowded places on November 3 during the coronavirus pandemic.

The result is a total of 58.6 million ballots cast so far, more than the 58 million that The Associated Press logged as being cast through the mail or at in-person early voting sites in 2016.

And 2020 is set to have the highest voter turnout since 1908 with an estimated 150million Americans predicted to cast their vote for the next president.

University of Florida professor Michael McDonald, who administers the US Elections Project, predicts a record turnout of 150 million citizens voting in the election, representing about 65 percent of eligible voters. 

This year’s high stakes race between Donald Trump and Democratic nominee Joe Biden is projected to eclipse the voter turnout of 2016, when approximately 137 million people voted.  

According to the US Elections Project, the most votes have been cast in Texas followed by California and Florida so far.

With nine days before Election Day, more people already have cast ballots in this year’s presidential election than voted early or absentee in the 2016 race. Voters wearing face masks cast their ballots in a vote center at Staples Center in Los Angeles on Saturday

The 2020 election could have the highest voter turnout in over a century with an estimated 150million Americans predicted to cast their vote for the next president. Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez submits her ballot after participating in early voting at a polling station in The Bronx in New York City on Sunday morning

Harriet Harris, 99, of Pekin, Illinois uses a stylus as she votes for the first time using an electronic voting machine during early voting at the Tremont Community Center in Peoria on Friday. Harris has voted in every presidential election since 1944. This year was the first time the lifelong Republican cast a ballot for a Democratic presidential candidate

Democrats have continued to dominate the initial balloting, but Republicans are narrowing the gap. GOP voters have begun to show up as early in-person voting, a sign that many heeded President Donald Trump’s unfounded warnings about mail-voting fraud.

On October 15, Democrats registrants cast 51% of all ballots reported, compared with 25% from Republicans. On Sunday, Democrats had a slightly smaller lead, 51% to 31%.

The early vote totals, reported by state and local election officials and tracked by the AP, are an imperfect indicator of which party may be leading. The data only shows party registration, not which candidate voters support. Most GOP voters are expected to vote on Election Day.

Analysts said the still sizable Democratic turnout puts extra pressure on the Republican Party to push its voters out in the final week and, especially, on November 3. That’s especially clear in closely contested states such as Florida, Nevada and North Carolina.

‘This is a glass half-full, glass half-empty situation,’ said John Couvillon, a Republican pollster who tracks early voting closely. ‘They’re showing up more,’ he added, but ‘Republicans need to rapidly narrow that gap.’

In Florida, for example, Democrats have outvoted Republicans by a 596,000 margin by mail, while Republicans only have a 230,000 edge in person. In Nevada, where Democrats usually dominate in-person early voting but the state decided to send a mail ballot to every voter this year, the GOP has a 42,600 voter edge in-person while Democrats have an 97,500 advantage in mail ballots.

Voters pictured linked up waiting to cast in their early vote at The Dobbs Ferry Village Hall in Westchester County, New York on Saturday

So far more than 58million Americans have already cast their ballots as of Sunday, with just nine days to go before November 3, according to the US Elections Project, with the most votes cast in Texas, California and Florida

‘At some point, Republicans have to vote,’ said Michael McDonald, a University of Florida political scientist who tracks early voting on ‘You can’t force everyone through a vote center on Election Day. Are you going to expect all those Republicans to stand in line for eight hours?’

Campaigns typically push their voters to cast ballots early so they can focus scarce resources chasing more marginal voters as the days tick down to Election Day. That usually saves them money on mailers and digital ads – something the cash-strapped Trump campaign would likely want – and minimizes the impact of late surprises that could change the race.

Trump’s campaign has been pushing its voters to cast ballots early, but with limited success, delighting Democrats. ‘We see the Trump campaign, the RNC (Republican National Committee) and their state parties urging Trump’s supporters to vote by mail while the president’s Twitter account says it’s a fraud,’ Tom Bonier, a Democratic data analyst, said on a recent call with reporters. ‘The Twitter account is going to win every time.’

But Bonier warned that he does not expect a one-sided election. ‘There are signs of Republicans being engaged,’ he said. ‘We do expect them to come out in very high numbers on Election Day.’

That split in voting behavior – Democrats voting early, Republicans on Election Day – has led some Democrats to worry about Trump declaring victory because early votes are counted last in Rust Belt battlegrounds. But they’re counted swiftly in swing states such as Arizona, Florida and North Carolina, which may balance out which party seems ahead on election night.

A woman walks into the Polk County Auditor’s office to cast her early vote Saturday in Des Moines, Iowa

In Georgia, some voters waited as long as 10 hours to cast their early vote. Voters in Gwinnett County above Saturday

People arrive to cast their ballots just after sunrise during early voting in Celebration, Florida on Sunday

Some of the record-setting turnout has led to long lines at early-vote locations and there have been occasional examples of voters receiving mail ballots that are incorrectly formatted. 

In Georgia some people waited in line for more than 10 hours to cast their ballots, with similar sluggish lines reported in Virginia and Ohio.

In New York state, voters jammed polling places and stood in line for hours to cast ballots on the state’s first day of early voting on Saturday.

On a whole, voting has gone relatively smoothly. 

With more than one-third of the 150 million ballots that experts predict will be cast in the election, there have been no armed confrontations at polling places or massive disenfranchisement that have worried election experts for months.

One sign of enthusiasm is the large number of new or infrequent voters who have already voted – 25% of the total cast, according to an AP analysis of data from the political data firm L2. Those voters are younger than a typical voter and less likely to be white. So far similar shares of them are registering Democratic and Republican.

A voter is assisted by a polling station clerk inside the Staples Center as California in-person early voting for the U.S. Presidential election begins, in Los Angeles on Saturday

They have helped contribute to enormous turnouts in states such as Georgia, where 26.3% of the people who’ve voted are new or infrequent voters, and Texas, which is expected to set turnout record and where 30.5% are new or infrequent voters.

The strong share of new and infrequent voters in the early vote is part of what leads analysts to predict more than 150 million total votes will be cast and possibly the highest turnout in a U.S. presidential election since 1908.

‘There’s a huge chunk of voters who didn’t cast ballots in 2016,’ Bonier said. ‘They’re the best sign of intensity at this point.’ 

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