Director of Research and Strategy, Future Now Initiative, an Abuja-based civic group, Julius Ogunro, has stated that all efforts at forming any coalition to unseat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027 must learn from the mistake made by the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar countdown to the 2023 general elections.
Ogunro said the opposition Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, misread the Nigerian political system while displaying gross ignorance of the country’s political behaviour and demographics.
He said “As the opposition rallies toward the 2027 elections, it is necessary to draw attention to the PDP’s error of 2023. Atiku, Tambuwal, and co.’s narrow messaging cost the party its southern support base, making it impossible for the PDP to win. Therefore, the emerging coalition must be wary of some politicians’ inclination to mask personal ambition as the group’s own and thereby foist an image that is narrow, alienating, and limiting.”
He noted that “the new coalition’s leaders must insist that it remain broad-based, drawing strength from its plurality and diversity like the APC did when it was formed in 2013. Anything short of that would be Nunc Dimittis, a funeral for a stillborn rather than the building of a people-owned political party capable of rescuing the country.”
Ogunro added that in his desperation to win the PDP’s presidential ticket, Atiku was beclouded by devoting great energy to challenging the “ambitious and cash-flushed” Nyesom Wike, who is now the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
He noted that the former vice president and his supporters like Aminu Tambuwal and late Raymond Dokpesi was in his judgment as he pursued a line of reasoning that was not only wrong but clearly against his long-term interest.
According to him, “The worst possible outcome of the 2023 presidential election would have been an Abubakar victory. That would have established such a bad and dangerous precedent, causing serious damage to Nigeria’s unity and worsening the country’s already problematic management of diversity.”
He that “Atiku ran for the PDP presidential ticket because only a northern candidate could win. This was not a subtle campaign but a full-throated one. Atiku, went on national TV to cite controversial population dynamics as the reason only a northerner could win the presidency.
“The naiveté displayed by these men, who ordinarily should be considered seasoned political strategists because of the positions and offices they had occupied, was outstanding. Their actions misread the Nigerian political system or, even worse, displayed ignorance of the country’s political behaviour and demographics.
“This ‘only a northerner can win’ campaign was so steep that it impacted the rival APC. I was a strategist for the campaign of a southern presidential aspirant in the APC, and one of our notable challenges was the growing narrative that only a person from the north could win the general election, especially if the PDP elected a northern Presidential candidate.
“The argument seemed silly and easily dismissible, considering Nigeria’s plural demographics, voting behaviour, and presidential election results since 1999. But even in casual conversations, one could tell that the narrative was gaining ground. Soon, there was chatter of a plot in the Villa to ensure that a northerner emerged as the APC presidential candidate, making it an all-north final—Atiku in the PDP and the northerner emerging in the APC,” he said.
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