The Federal Executive Council, FEC, has approved the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework, MTEF, setting Nigeria’s economic direction, revenue expectations, and spending priorities for the next three years.
Atiku Bagudu, the minister of budget and national planning, announced the approval after Wednesday’s council meeting chaired by President Bola Tinubu. He said the framework was jointly presented by his ministry and the budget office of the federation.
He explained that although the council set an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day for 2026, the fiscal plan is based on a more cautious 1.8 million barrels per day. Bagudu also noted that crude oil is priced at $64 per barrel in the projections, while the exchange rate assumption stands at N1,512 per dollar.
The minister said the exchange rate outlook reflects the fact that 2026 precedes a general election year, adding that all assumptions were drawn from extensive macroeconomic and fiscal analyses conducted by the budget office and partner agencies.
He added that inflation is projected to average 18 percent in 2026.
Based on these indicators, Bagudu said the federation’s total revenue for 2026 is estimated at N50.74 trillion, which will be shared among federal, state, and local governments.
“From this projection, the federal government is expected to receive N22.6 trillion, states N16.3 trillion, and local governments N11.85 trillion,” he said.
He further stated that when revenues from all federal sources are consolidated, including N4.98 trillion from government-owned enterprises, total Federal Government revenue for 2026 is projected at N34.33 trillion, representing a N6.55 trillion or 16 percent decline compared to the 2025 budget estimate.
Statutory transfers are projected at about N3 trillion, while debt servicing is expected to consume N10.91 trillion. Non-debt recurrent expenditure, including personnel costs and overheads, is put at N15.27 trillion. The fiscal deficit for 2026 is estimated at N20.1 trillion, representing 3.61 percent of GDP.
The MTEF projects nominal GDP at over N690 trillion in 2026, rising to N890.6 trillion in 2028. Overall GDP growth is expected to reach 4.6 percent in 2026. Non-oil GDP is projected to grow from N550.7 trillion in 2026 to N871.3 trillion in 2028, while oil GDP is expected to rise from N557.4 trillion to N893.5 trillion within the same period.
Bagudu said President Tinubu is confident that sustaining reforms and fully implementing the MTEF, supported by improving macroeconomic stability, will place Nigeria on a stronger growth path over the next three years.
The council also reviewed inputs from various ministries before approving the Medium-Term Fiscal Expenditure Ceiling, MFTEC, a key instrument aimed at regulating government spending and promoting fiscal discipline.
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