Skip next section Markus Söder: ‘Bavaria has voted for stability’ October 8, 2023
Markus Söder: ‘Bavaria has voted for stability’ Bavaria’s Markus Söder welcomed the projected win for his partyImage: TOBIAS SCHWARZ/AFPBavaria’s state premier and CSU candidate Markus Söder has given a victory speech in Munich.
“Bavaria has voted. Bavaria has voted for stability. And the CSU has won this election clearly, ladies and gentlemen,” Söder told supporters.
The Bavarian leader might still have half an eye on the exact numbers, though, hoping to surpass the 37.2% support the CSU claimed in 2018. At present, it appears that the conservatives might fall just short of that mark.
Söder also ruled out an alliance with the Greens and the far-right AfD In remarks to public broadcaster ARD.
“The positions the Greens have don’t fit with our positions in Bavaria. And I’ll repeat what I said before the vote, there will not be a CSU-Green alliance in Bavaria,” he said.
The conservative politician said he could pledge “stability in difficult times” for the southern German state.
Some of those difficult times do apply to his still-dominant party in Bavaria though.
Renowned CSU leader Franz-Josef Strauß once famously coined the phrase “there can be no democratically legitimate party to the right of the CDU/CSU” as a kind of credo for Germany’s conservatives.
How you chose to classify the Free Voters, whose main historical priority has been greater regional independence and less power for the federal government in Berlin, is perhaps an open question.
But there can be little doubt that the AfD is to the right of the CSU. Whether or not they are “democratically legitimate” is again perhaps an open debate, but around 1 in 6 voters in Bavaria think so.
Combined, the Free Voters and the AfD look set to claim around 30% of Bavaria’s vote.
https://p.dw.com/p/4XGk6Skip next section Hesse: SPD’s Faeser concedes defeat in ‘disappointing result’ October 8, 2023
Hesse: SPD’s Faeser concedes defeat in ‘disappointing result’ German Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, who raised eyebrows with her decision to seek the state premier position while holding one of the most prominent ministerial positions in Berlin, has conceded defeat on seeing the decisive exit polls.
Faeser spoke of a “disappointing result” for the Social Democrats (SPD), who look set to finish more than 20% adrift of the CDU, and said the party had failed to “cut through” with their talking points and policies.
She congratulated the CDU and state premier Boris Rhein on a clear victory.
Influential SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert, formerly the leader of the party’s youth wing, said on German public television that the results were a “clear signal” to the federal government, known by the color-based nickname “traffic light” coalition (red, yellow, and green) in Germany. “We have understood,” he said.
However, when asked if the result should have consequences for Faeser’s position in Berlin, Kühnert said he believed not.
“We stand behind Nancy Faeser,” he said. “This was a vote about Hesse.”
https://p.dw.com/p/4XGhWSkip next section Winners and losers versus 2018October 8, 2023
Winners and losers versus 2018One pattern is unmistakable in both states’ numbers compared to their last elections in 2018.
All three parties in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government — the Social Democrats, the Free Democrats, and the Greens — appear on course to lose support in both states.
This is particularly problematic for the Free Democrats, who appear sure to be excluded from Bavaria’s parliament and right on the cusp of the 5% they need for representation in Hesse.
For the Greens and the SPD, the losses in Bavaria appear to be small, around 1% compared to five years ago.
But in Hesse, usually a much more competitive battleground than Bavaria, both the Greens and the SPD are on course to lose 4% or more of their 2018 vote share.
Hesse’s CDU, gaining some 8.5%, is profiting primarily, but the far-right AfD also looks like it will pick up about 3% support in the state.
And Germany’s far-left party, die Linke, also looks like it will no longer have a spot in the state parliament, sitting at just 3.8% support in the exit polls.
https://p.dw.com/p/4XGfgSkip next section Exit polls for Bavaria — CSU largest party, Greens possibly secondOctober 8, 2023
Exit polls for Bavaria — CSU largest party, Greens possibly secondIn Bavaria, the center-right CSU was put at 37% support in exit polls. As expected, that gives it more than a 20% margin against any other party.
However, if that number proves accurate, it would also be the CSU’s worst ever performance in a post-war Bavarian election, slightly worse than 2018’s tally.
Exit polls suggest the Greens might have won the tight race to be Bavaria’s second largest party, at 16% support.
However, the AfD was put at 15% and the Bavarian Free Voters at 14%, meaning a change in the order is not yet out of the question.
Typically however the exit polls are a reliable indicator of the final results.
The Social Democrats struggled at 8.5%, and the Free Democrats slipped — as predicted — out of Bavaria’s state parliament, securing just 3% support and missing the 5% hurdle.
Those figures mean that the current CSU-Free Voters coaliton could continue its work, if party leaders Markus Söder and Hubert Aiwanger decide that they wish to.
https://p.dw.com/p/4XGe2Skip next section Exit polls for Hesse — CDU strongest party, FDP right on the 5% threshholdOctober 8, 2023
Exit polls for Hesse — CDU strongest party, FDP right on the 5% threshholdAs the polls close, first exit polls for both states are being published.
In Hesse, the Christian Democrats appear on course for just over 35% of the vote, and will emerge as the largest party by a large margin.
The Social Democrats and the right-wing populist AfD were both put at 16% — signalling a close race to be the second largest party.
Even the Greens, at 15.5%, could conceivably still be in striking distance.
Meanwhile, the Free Democrats (FDP) are right on the threshhold that guarantees representation in the state parliament, polling at 5%.
https://p.dw.com/p/4XGdfSkip next section Polls close in Bavaria and HesseOctober 8, 2023
Polls close in Bavaria and HesseIt’s 6 p.m. in Germany. Polls are now closed in Bavaria and Hesse.
First exit polls are being released as we speak. More coming in a few seconds.
https://p.dw.com/p/4XGcrSkip next section Hesse party leaders tight-lipped on coalition calculusOctober 8, 2023
Hesse party leaders tight-lipped on coalition calculusThe party leaders in Hesse kept their cards close to their chests when asked about potential coalition combinations amid the vote.
The CDU’s Boris Rhein, current state premier and the man who leads what’s likely to be the largest party, said voters were about to provide a clear indication on coalition options, and “then we will see, how things are developing.”
“I believe that democrats need to be able to find common ground among each other,” he said.
Boris Rhein is set to remain the state premier in HesseImage: KAI PFAFFENBACH/REUTERS Rhein said his party’s job was to secure the largest share of the vote, and said that in that case, he’d be sure to at least reach out to all three of the other mainstream parties, his current Green coalition partners, the Social Democrats, and the Free Democrats.
The Greens’ Tarek Al-Wazir similarly said that “all democrats must be able to speak to each other and if necessary form coalitions.”
And Interior Minister Nancy Faeser, lead candidate for the Social Democrats, also said that all coalition options would at least be considered, except that it would not be possible to establish “cooperation of any kind, not even a toleration agreement, with with the AfD.”
https://p.dw.com/p/4XGcjSkip next section Trends to watch for as voting nears its endOctober 8, 2023
Trends to watch for as voting nears its endWith only a couple more hours of voting scheduled, here’s a little cheat sheet of what to watch for this evening when the polls close in Bavaria and Hesse.
The votes may be at the regional level, but it’s fair to say Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s national government in Berlin — and its series of difficulties internally and externally of late — is liable to have an impact on the numbers too.
First things first, barring the sort of shock that would risk polling companies retiring and going home forever, the largest parties in both states can be predicted with relative certainty.
In Bavaria, the ever-dominant Christian Social Union or CSU is sure to emerge as the largest party. However, polls also suggest it could face its worst, or least impressive, performance in any post-war state election. The CSU’s 37.2% of the vote in 2018 was its worst in any Bavarian ballot, and polls had them at roughly the same level of support in the weeks before this vote.
And in Hesse, the conservative CDU look sure of being the largest party by quite some distance.
But in both these cases, the conservatives — now in opposition at the national level after more than a decade with Angela Merkel heading the federal government — will still need to find coalition partners.
All three parties currently in the coalition government in Berlin — the SPD, the FDP and the Greens — appear at risk of losing support compared to their 2018 performances in both states. The pro-free market FDP, in particular, appear at risk of falling short of the 5% hurdle to guarantee parliamentary representation in both states.
And the right-wing populist AfD also appears to be profiting from the ruling trio’s regional problems. Pollsters believe it will gain ground in both states, albeit still most likely falling well short of 20% overall support. The party does have at least an outside shot of becoming the second-largest party in both states once the votes are counted.
https://p.dw.com/p/4XGSNSkip next section Bavaria’s Aiwanger casts ballot in rural districtOctober 8, 2023
Bavaria’s Aiwanger casts ballot in rural districtAiwanger faced calls to resign earlier in the campaign but appears to have emerged broadly unscathed from an anti-Semitism scandal relating to his school daysImage: Armin Weigel/dpa/picture allianceHubert Aiwanger, the leader of Bavaria’s right-wing Free Voters (FW), cast his ballot in Rottenburg an der Laaber on Sunday.
The small rural town is to the northeast of Munich, home to around 8,000 people.
Aiwanger is also the deputy to state premier Markus Söder, with his Free Voters currently in coalition with the CSU in a right-of-center alliance.
“We are the providers of ideas and the tone-setters in this coalition,” Aiwanger said when voting. “I am convinced that voters will honor that.”
You can read about Aiwanger in more depth here.
His party is considered the likeliest candidate for Söder and the CSU to tap when seeking to set up another coalition government.
The party also appears to be in something of a three-way shootout to secure the second-most votes in the state, far behind the CSU.
Polls before voting day suggested that the Greens, the Free Voters and the far-right AfD could anticipate very similar levels of support, somewhere around the 15% mark. The Social Democrats, who often struggle in the conservative stronghold of Bavaria, were polling around 5% adrift of these three.
Despite holding up one ballot for the cameras, Aiwanger will also have had several to cast, as do all Bavarian voters this Sunday.
Voters are choosing both representatives for the state parliament and also municipal representation on local councils. For each of these votes, people are asked to submit two ballots — one directly for a preferred candidate in your specific constituency, and another for the party they wish to support at the wider state or district level. People are free to mix and match if they wish.
Voters in Bavaria, in particular, are facing a large ballot of candidates to choose from.
https://p.dw.com/p/4XGPwSkip next section Interior Minister Nancy Faeser casts her ballotOctober 8, 2023
Interior Minister Nancy Faeser casts her ballotFaeser cast her vote in Schwalbach am Taunus in her Main-Taunus constituencyImage: Kiril Kudryavtsev/AFP via Getty ImagesGerman Interior Minister Nancy Faeser has voted in the state of Hesse, where she is running as the top candidate for the Social Democrats (SPD).
The SPD has been trailing behind the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the polls.
Incumbent CDU premier, Boris Rhein, has governed Hesse in a well-functioning alliance with the Greens for nearly a decade. Polls suggest that coalition will likely continue.
https://p.dw.com/p/4XGCfSkip next section Why Berlin’s blunders will impact the Hesse state electionOctober 8, 2023
Why Berlin’s blunders will impact the Hesse state electionDuring the campaign, contenders in Hesse’s regional elections focused on national issues such as migration and dwindling support for the federal government in Berlin.
According to recent polls, less than half of the German electorate is satisfied with the federal government. Surveys of people in Hesse suggest that will impact how voters cast their ballots.
Read more here about what federal politics could mean for Hesse’s election.
https://p.dw.com/p/4XGBSSkip next section What you need to know about Bavaria’s CSUOctober 8, 2023
What you need to know about Bavaria’s CSUBavarians are known for their independence. The political expression of this is the Christian Social Union — the regional conservative party and feisty southern sibling to ex-Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats.
Click here to read more about the CSU and its leader, Markus Söder.
https://p.dw.com/p/4XG7USkip next section Bavaria’s Premier Söder casts his voteOctober 8, 2023
Bavaria’s Premier Söder casts his voteSöder called on citizens to vote in the electionImage: Tobias Schwerz/AFP via Getty ImagesBavarian Premier Markus Söder of the center-right CSU has cast his vote in the state election at his constituency in Nuremberg.
Söder posted a photo of himself and his wife on social media as they cast their ballots on Sunday morning.
https://p.dw.com/p/4XFzfSkip next section Far-right AfD predicted to make further gainsOctober 8, 2023
Far-right AfD predicted to make further gainsThe far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is projected to improve its numbers in the elections, although it is not expected to enter government in either state.
The anti-immigration party is polling at 14% in Bavaria and 16% in Hesse.
In nationwide polls, it has surged to second place amid voter concerns around migration and the economy.
Further progress for the AfD party would ring alarm bells about its growing popularity, which is even stronger in eastern Germany.
Rise in support for the anti-immigration party could also force the center-right CDU/CSU bloc to move more toward the right to win back voters. German parties have vowed to steer clear of cooperating with AfD politicians.
Dealing with the German far-right AfD on a local levelTo view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
https://p.dw.com/p/4XFohSkip next section Faeser runs in Hesse, CDU projected to maintain premiershipOctober 8, 2023
Faeser runs in Hesse, CDU projected to maintain premiershipGerman Interior Minister Nancy Faeser is running as the lead candidate of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD) in the central state of Hesse. But polls suggest she is unlikely to unseat current premier Boris Rhein from the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU).
The CDU’s performance in Hesse is projected to improve, compared to the 27% they won in the 2018 state vote. The party is currently polling at 32%, followed by the SPD and Greens, which are tying at 17%.
Surveys suggest the SPD’s decision to push Faeser as its lead candidate may backfire, amid criticism of her handling of growing irregular migration as federal interior minister.
EU ministers agree on new asylum rulesTo view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
Faeser could also pay the price for the dive in public approval facing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government. Support for the ruling coalition remains at its lowest level since taking office in December 2021.
The biggest losers in the vote, however, could be Scholz’s partners, the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) and their party chief, Finance Minister Christian Lindner.
In Hesse, the party is polling at around 5%. In Bavaria, they’re polling at 3% — below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.
https://p.dw.com/p/4XFoF
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