The latest foreign trade data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Thursday, March 19, showed that Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol persisted in 2025, with oil marketers spending N8.96 trillion on Premium Motor Spirit (petrol) imports between January and December, despite increased investments in domestic refining capacity.
The data showed that petrol, code-named “Motor Spirit Ordinary,” remained one of the most imported commodities throughout the year, reflecting ongoing supply gaps in the downstream sector.
The NBS said petrol import costs were N8.96tn in 2025, representing a decline of N6.46tn, or about 41.9 per cent, from the N15.42 trillion recorded in 2024, but still stood N1.45 trillion, or roughly 19.3 per cent, higher than the N7.51 trillion posted in 2023 when fuel subsidy was eliminated by the current administration.
This latest development comes days after it was reported that domestic refineries imported crude oil worth N5.734 trillion between January and December 2025, exposing a deepening supply paradox in the country’s oil sector and an ongoing dependence on imports.
The fuel import expenditure came at a time when expectations were high for a decline in reliance on foreign supply following significant investments in local refining.
This trend persisted despite the commencement of operations, steady ramp-up in production, and distribution of petrol by domestic refineries, notably the Dangote petroleum refinery, alongside state-owned refineries and several modular facilities.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) published recently revealed that total petrol consumption stood at 18.97 billion litres in 2025, with 11.85 billion litres, representing 62.47 per cent, supplied through imports.
Domestic refineries contributed about 7.54 billion litres, accounting for 37.53 per cent of total consumption.
The new NBS document, which focuses on the value of products, showed a fluctuating but sustained petrol import pattern, with expenditure rising by N0.62 trillion, or about 35.2 per cent, from N1.76 trillion in the first quarter to N2.38 trillion in the second quarter, before dropping sharply by N1.09 trillion, or roughly 45.8 per cent, to N1.29 trillion in the third quarter.
However, imports rebounded strongly in the fourth quarter, surging by N2.25 trillion, or about 174.4 per cent, to N3.54 trillion, the highest quarterly expenditure recorded in the year.
Overall, the fourth-quarter spike accounted for nearly 40 per cent of total annual imports, underscoring persistent supply pressures and seasonal demand fluctuations.
A breakdown of the figures showed that petrol was the second most imported product in the first quarter at N1.76 trillion and also ranked as the second-highest import from African countries, with N89.18bn largely sourced from Togo within the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS) sub-region.
By the second quarter, petrol had risen to become Nigeria’s top imported product at N2.38 trillion, maintaining its dominance across African, West African, and ECOWAS trade corridors, where imports stood at N208.76 billion.
The trend shifted in the third quarter, when import value dropped to N1.29 trillion, making petrol the third most imported product globally during the period.
Notably, no imports were recorded from African or ECOWAS countries in that quarter, indicating a shift towards alternative international suppliers.
In the fourth quarter, petrol imports rebounded strongly to N3.54 trillion, reclaiming their position as the most imported commodity.
Within Africa, it ranked as the second-highest import at N84.69 billion, with Togo again featuring prominently among regional suppliers.
In the fourth quarter, petrol imports from Brazil were valued at N221.15 billion, while the Netherlands emerged as one of Nigeria’s largest suppliers with shipments worth N1.22 trillion in the same period.
Overall, the product’s share of total trade reflected a fluctuating but rising trend, accounting for 11.42 per cent in the first quarter, increasing to 15.54 per cent in the second quarter, before dropping to 7.98 per cent in the third quarter and rebounding sharply to 20.52 per cent in the fourth quarter.
Further analysis showed that Nigeria sourced petrol from a diverse mix of countries, including the Netherlands, the United States (US), Belgium, Brazil, and Togo, highlighting the global nature of its fuel supply chain.
Despite the operational take-off of the Dangote refinery and ongoing rehabilitation of state-owned refineries, import dependence remains deeply entrenched.
Over the past five years, Nigeria’s petrol import bill has steadily risen. In 2020, the country spent N2.01 trillion on fuel imports, more than doubling to N4.56 trillion in 2021.
By 2022, the figure further increased to N7.71 trillion before slightly declining to N7.51 trillion in 2023.
However, in 2024, fuel import expenditure surged to an all-time high of N15.42 trillion, marking the largest petrol import bill in Nigeria’s history.
The figures highlight a structural imbalance between refining capacity and actual output, noting that while installed capacity has improved, feedstock constraints, logistics challenges, and market dynamics continue to limit performance.
The sustained reliance on foreign petrol supply underscores the challenges facing Nigeria’s energy transition, as the country grapples with aligning its upstream resources with downstream capacity.
As Africa’s largest oil producer, the paradox of importing a majority of its refined fuel needs continues to define Nigeria’s petroleum sector, a trend that policymakers say must be urgently reversed to achieve true energy independence.
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