Nigeria’s crude oil production rose slightly in October to 1.401 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 1.39 million bpd in September, signaling a gradual recovery in the country’s oil output.
According to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released on Wednesday, November 12.
Despite the marginal increase, Nigeria failed to meet its Organisation of the OPEC-assigned production quota for the third consecutive month, with the last compliance recorded in July 2025.
OPEC data also shows that Nigeria’s average output stood at 1.444 million bpd in Q3 2025, down from 1.481 million bpd in Q2 and 1.468 million bpd in Q1, underscoring the country’s continued struggle to sustain production despite government interventions and fresh investments in the oil sector.
The report revealed that global oil supply exceeded demand by about 500,000 barrels per day in October, reversing the 400,000-barrel deficit reported in September.
According to OPEC’s Vienna secretariat, the change was largely driven by higher non-OPEC output, with the United States (US) contributing more than half of the 890,000 barrels per day added globally.
The minister of state for petroleum (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, recently announced that the country plans to formally request OPEC to raise its production quota from 1.5 million bpd to 2 million bpd.
He noted that new drilling activities, the reactivation of dormant oil fields, and renewed investments by International Oil Companies (IOCs) have strengthened Nigeria’s capacity to boost output.
Nigeria’s repeated shortfalls have been linked to pipeline vandalism, oil theft, ageing infrastructure, and funding limitations affecting major projects.
Although the government has stepped up surveillance and security around key oil corridors, production levels remain below pre-2020 averages, when the country routinely produced over 1.8 million bpd.
Failing to meet OPEC’s quota for three consecutive months presents a risk to Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings, as crude oil remains its primary source of revenue.
However, the slight uptick in production suggests a gradual recovery trend, which could improve fiscal stability if sustained.
With the revival of local refineries, the launch of private facilities such as the Dangote refinery, and increased upstream investments, Nigeria could be poised for stronger performance in 2026 provided it overcomes ongoing security and infrastructure challenges.
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