Barely 24 hours after the unveiling of the newly formed African Democratic Congress, ADC, coalition, attention has quickly shifted from the spirit of unity to individual ambitions.
The opposition platform’s primary objective is to challenge President Bola Tinubu in 2027 elections.
The coalition, introduced as a viable alternative to the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, includes prominent political figures such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, former Minister of Transportation Rotimi Amaechi, Former Interior Minister, Rauf Aregbesola and former Senate President David Mark.
What began as a joint effort by politicians with divergent ideologies is now revealing early signs of internal struggle for power, with separate narratives emerging from the camps of leading contenders.
The potential candidates
The trio of Peter Obi, a former presidential candidate on the platform of labour Party; Rotimi Amaechi, a former Minister of Transportation and ex-governor of Rivers State as well as Atiku Abubakar, a former presidential candidate on the banner of the Peoples Democratic Party, PDP, are all interested in occupying Nigeria’s top office.
Although Atiku hasn’t officially announced his presidential ambition, he has never hidden the fact that he is still interested in the position. This may perhaps be his final attempt at the presidency. If nominated, 2027 would mark his seventh campaign for Nigeria’s top office.
With the PDP weakened by internal divisions, Atiku reportedly spearheaded the ADC coalition to build a stronger opposition platform. Political observers, however, argue that his motivations are far from altruistic.
Despite growing calls for a southern candidate, Atiku’s supporters are confident in the North’s numerical strength and its historic role in deciding national elections.
The ADC primaries are expected to be highly competitive, and Atiku’s well-known ability to win intra-party contests remains a major factor in the months ahead.
Obi not only made his presidential ambition known immediately after the coalition came into being, he took a step further by formally submitting his one-term presidency proposal to the coalition for review.
His proposal emphasized that any southern candidate winning the presidency should adhere to stepping down by May 28, 2031, respecting the unwritten power-sharing agreement and zoning principle.
Although the one-term presidency is not constitutionally mandated, Obi believes four years is sufficient to deliver his agenda like stabilizing electricity, reviving Nigeria’s economy etc.
Following in Obi’s stead, Amaechi on Thursday officially announced his intention to contest the 2027 presidential election under the ADC banner. Like Obi, he confirmed that he would serve only one term if elected, citing worsening economic conditions and insecurity as grounds for the removal of the Tinubu administration.
With his declaration, competition within the ADC has effectively begun, with aspirants promoting their political agendas under the guise of party unity.
Yusuf Datti Baba-Ahmed, Obi’s 2023 running mate, has publicly stated that Obi should be the coalition’s presidential candidate. According to him, Obi’s popularity among the youth and his performance in the last general election — despite the disputed result — makes him the most viable candidate to galvanise public support for the ADC.
Although Obi has not resigned from the Labour Party, his involvement in the ADC coalition has strengthened speculation that he may contest under its platform or withdraw altogether if the party’s nomination does not favour him.
Despite publicly recognising Atiku as his political elder, Obi’s allies insist he is the more widely accepted candidate within the emerging coalition, especially given the prevailing call for a southern presidency.
The respective allies of both Obi and Atiku are already building support within the ADC. While youth-based groups are mobilising for Obi, several influential PDP figures in the North are aligning behind Atiku.
A re-enactment of 2019 presidential elections?
There is ongoing speculation that a joint ticket could be proposed, with Obi as a running mate. However, Datti’s firm position and the stance of the Obidient movement suggest that any proposal short of the presidential slot for Obi would be rejected outright.
Potential manipulation
Though the coalition has generated significant attention, it is not immune to internal friction. There are concerns from some quarters about potential manipulation of the selection process in favour of Atiku or another candidate.
Media personality, Dele Momodu has played down these concerns, claiming that coalition leaders have agreed to prioritise party cohesion and prevent internal divisions.
“No ambition will override the broader objective,” Momodu said adding that members have committed to resolving disputes through consensus.
How 2027 will play out
With Amaechi’s declaration, Datti’s endorsement of Obi, and Atiku’s careful positioning, the ADC is navigating a complex internal landscape. How the party manages these competing ambitions and conducts its primaries will determine whether the coalition presents a genuine challenge to the ruling party or unravels before the race begins.
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