This article will be updated once new data and election results become available.
Who will win the German election? Currently, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), are ahead in polls compiled by the Berlin-based election research institute infratest dimap. The Union parties enjoy a lead of more than 10 percentage points over the far-right populist Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is polling second.
The AfD has grown in popularity, and in September 2024 posted major gains in regional elections in the eastern states of Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg.
The governing Social Democratic Party (SPD) and Greens follow in third and fourth place, while the neoliberal Free Democratic Party (FDP), which was previously part of a three-way governing coalition, is running last.
Who will be Germany’s next chancellor? When voters cast their ballots on February 23, 2025, they won’t directly elect the next German chancellor. Instead, they will elect politicians to the Bundestag, the lower house of German parliament. Unless a party wins an outright majority, the party with the most representatives in the Bundestag attempts to build a governing coalition. Such coalitions usually hold a parliamentary majority, with contemporary Germany only twice having had minority governments — in 1966 and 1982. Ordinarily, the party with the most votes in a ruling coalition appoints its declared chancellor candidate to lead the government.
Despite not being directly elected, the popularity of each party’s top candidate is regularly tracked alongside that of the party itself. Friedrich Merz, the CDU/CSU’s chancellor candidate, is currently the frontrunner for the job.
This is particularly interesting if you look at Merz’s current numbers compared to those from 2021 — Merz was not the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate in that election, but pollsters still tracked his popularity. The 2021 election resulted in a three-way coalition between the center-left SPD, the environmentalist Greens, and the neoliberal FDP. The recent collapse of that coalition triggered the February 23 vote.
Polling indicates that Merz is not in front because his own approval ratings have improved so significantly, but rather because Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD chancellor candidate) and Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens chancellor candidate) have become so unpopular.
How is the German chancellor chosen? Parties select their lead candidate prior to the election. After the vote, parties seek to form a governing coalition. When a potential coalition has been assembled, the German president (Germany’s head of state) presents a candidate to be elected chancellor (head of government) by members of the Bundestag.
The individual selected by the president is typically the top candidate of the senior coalition partner of a newly formed government. A candidate must secure an absolute majority to win the secret ballot vote. After a winner is determined he or she can begin naming Cabinet nominees.
How does Germany’s election system work? The German electoral system is designed to produce coalition governments. It seeks to unite the principles of majority rule and proportional representation. In German elections, each voter casts two ballots — the so-called “Erststimme” and “Zweitstimme” (first ballot, second ballot).
The first ballot is cast for a “direct” candidate from a voter’s constituency, the second is cast for a political party.
The names of each party’s candidates for the Bundestag appear on Landeslisten, or state lists, that must be filed with election authorities prior to the election. Candidates on state lists enter parliament according to their place on the list and the number of seats their party wins in a respective state — the more seats they win in a state, the more candidates from their state lists are appointed to fill them.
These votes are key — the more second ballots a party receives, the more seats it is allotted in the parliament. Thus, the second vote determines the relative strength of the parties represented in the Bundestag.
First and second ballots do not have to be cast for candidates from the same party. Voters are free to cast ballots for someone from one party with their first ballot and for a completely different party with their second.
Any party that wins more than 5% of the total vote is guaranteed a place in the Bundestag.
Comments